Pair #11935

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2741

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0208 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue