Pair #11934

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3761

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9297

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0273 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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