Pair #11933

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2652

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 7797

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0289 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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