Pair #11930

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 961

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 364

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0198 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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