Pair #11929

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8248

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3269

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600 + ~$0.0326 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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