Pair #11928

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BKOE

The Open Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 525

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BKOE

The Open Championship: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 5971

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400 + ~$0.0192 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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