Pair #11927

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1043

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 498

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900 + ~$0.0190 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue