Pair #11926

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1190

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 12743

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.3900
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0198 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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