Pair #11925

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3956

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 8414

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0302 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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