Pair #11924

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3239

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 25110

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0312 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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