Pair #11922

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JKEE

Will John Keefer lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4193

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JKEE

The Open Championship: Will John Keefer finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 409

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top40 finish due to possible collapse or withdrawal.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3090 + ~$0.0150 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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