Pair #11921

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RYH

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4923

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 524

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top40 finish due to possible collapse or withdrawal.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.64% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2840 + ~$0.0148 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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