Pair #11914

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20274

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0140

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 250

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top40 finish due to possible collapse or withdrawal.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4180 + ~$0.0172 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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