Pair #1191

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16574

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:23Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. A top 5 at Valspar has no logical connection to winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -16.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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