Pair #11902

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JKEE

The Open Championship: Will John Keefer finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7577

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Keefer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JKEE

The Open Championship: Will John Keefer finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 409

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Keefer finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0224 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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