Pair #11901

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MSOU

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Southgate finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew Southgate
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1888

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Southgate finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MSOU

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Southgate finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Matthew Southgate
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1556

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Southgate finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0100 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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