Pair #11900

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7699

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1881

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0189 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.67% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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