Pair #119

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBA-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Denver's NFL record and Denver's NBA Finals result are entirely separate sports with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -55.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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