Pair #11899

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13462

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 273

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0226 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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