Pair #11898

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4804

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2741

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0204 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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