Pair #11896

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9033

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6381

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0316 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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