Pair #11895

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8622

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2652

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0335 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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