Pair #11894

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9886

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 770

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.05% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0278 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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