Pair #11892

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1690

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 250

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.05% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0278 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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