Pair #11891

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 478

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.09% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0310 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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