Pair #11890

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 28967

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4297

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0331 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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