Pair #11889

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5705

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 961

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0271 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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