Pair #11888

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8055

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8248

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0283 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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