Pair #11886

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6219

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1043

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0279 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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