Pair #11885

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11630

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1190

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0296 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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