Pair #11883

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 80378

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3956

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0339 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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