Pair #11882

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23903

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3239

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0326 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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