Pair #11881

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6419

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2627

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0199 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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