Pair #11880

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1370

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1881

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.62% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0152 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.85% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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