Pair #1188

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16574

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1385475

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar Championship has no logical bearing on winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9510
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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