Pair #11879

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6928

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2741

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600 + ~$0.0174 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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