Pair #11878

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 25699

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3761

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700 + ~$0.0324 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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