Pair #11876

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6129

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2652

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0292 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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