Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CCON
The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13441
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Corey Conners finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CCON
The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 770
YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.4300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Corey Conners finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.78%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.3300
+ ~$0.0228 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.01%
BELOW HURDLE