Pair #11875

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13441

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 770

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0228 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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