Pair #11874

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5260

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1329

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0269 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.05% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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