Pair #11870

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3206

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 961

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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