Pair #11864

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7716

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3956

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0301 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue