Pair #11861

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2652

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -63.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5800 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -68.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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