Pair #11860

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2845

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 770

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -54.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200 + ~$0.0171 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -58.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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