Pair #11859

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22028

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1329

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -59.05% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -63.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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