Pair #11858

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6197

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 250

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -53.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -58.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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