Pair #11856

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28458

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4297

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -60.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0188 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -64.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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