Pair #11855

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15034

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 961

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -50.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -55.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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