Pair #11850

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2267

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -66.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -70.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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