Pair #1185

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3193

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7812

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:03Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could theoretically collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not imply having led after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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